Back to Blog

Monthly Economic Outlook -- The Pandemic So Far...

By Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Raymond James

COVID-19 has affected the data collection process for the major economic reports, including employment, consumer prices, retail sales, and industrial production. However, the incoming economic figures imply a stunningly swift, sharp decline in economic activity. This is especially clear in the two best real-time indicators, weekly jobless claims, and the UM Consumer Sentiment survey. We have not seen the economy bottom out, and forecasting the recovery is difficult. As Fed Chair Powell noted in mid-March, “the economic outlook depends critically on the spread of the virus, the measures taken to contain it and how long that goes on, and all that’s really not something that’s knowable.”

Read more