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Weekly Economic Commentary -- The Employment Outlook

By Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Raymond James

There’s always a story behind the economic data. The Employment Report understated the labor market deterioration in March, while seasonal adjustment amplified the level of job losses in the first half of the month. More importantly, claims for unemployment benefits doubled from the astronomical level of a week earlier. On a seasonally adjusted basis, nearly 10 million people, more than 6% of the labor force, have filed a jobless claim in just two weeks, more than in the first six months of the 2007-09 recession. The speed and magnitude of this decline are unprecedented, and we’re not close to being done yet.

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