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Weekly Economic Monitor – Considering The Recovery

By Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Raymond James

Considering The Recovery – The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that all 50 states experienced a decrease in payrolls and an increase in unemployment in April. Following some weeks of varying degrees of mandated social distancing, all 50 states have now begun to open up their economies. The near-term economic data are expected to reflect a sharp contraction in 2Q20. The outlook is uncertain, but appears likely to disappoint relative to earlier hopes of a rapid rebound.

This Week – Jobless claims will remain the key indicator to watch. The other economic data reports are not expected to be market-moving. The 2nd estimate of 1Q20 GDP growth is expected to be little changed from the advance estimate. Personal income and spending figures for April will help to gauge the second quarter damage. Durable goods orders are quirky even in the best of times -- fewer aircraft order cancellations may add to overall orders in April, while other sectors should weaken. Fed Chair Powell will discuss the economy on Friday.

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