By Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Raymond James
Data Dumpster Diving – With state economies opening up, activity is expected to pick up the final two months of 2Q20. Real-time indicators show improvement. However, the figures for April are consistent with a sharp contraction in 2Q20, which won’t come close to being offset by May and June.
This Week – Investors have factored in a strong rebound in the economy, but we’re unlikely to see much evidence of that in the May data. ISM surveys are likely to reflect less weakness (which some may view as “improvement”). Friday’s employment report is expected to reflect further job losses and an increase in the unemployment rate, but the data will be subject to a number of distortions (data collections, seasonal adjustment).