By Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Raymond James
Federal Debt – The first of three presidential debates is set for the evening of September 29. The topics, chosen by the Chris Wallace, the moderator, will be the Trump and Biden records, the Supreme Court, COVID-19, the economy, racial tensions, and election integrity. We may hear a little about fiscal policy, but any discussion of the federal debt will likely be deferred to one of the other debates (if at all).
This Week – The economic calendar is full. The first presidential debate is on Tuesday. The September Employment Report will be the last one before the November 3 election. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to have risen more moderately, but figures will be subject to some seasonal adjustment distortions related to the start of the school year and the end of the summer travel season. The ISM manufacturing Index should be consistent with further improvement in factory sector activity, although at a more moderate pace. Little change is expected in the 3rd estimate of 2Q20 GDP growth (-31.7% in the 2nd estimate), but August personal income and spending figures will help to fill in the GDP picture for the third quarter.