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Weekly Economic Monitor – Known and Unknown Unknowns

By Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Raymond James

Known and Unknown Unknowns – There are a number of uncertainties heading into the November 4 election and many more as we look ahead into 2021. There’s a long held belief that the stock market abhors uncertainty. There’s also an old adage that says the market often climbs a wall of worry. We can lay out a number of scenarios for the election results, the pandemic, and so on, but it’s typically what you don’t see coming that matters most.

The focus will likely be on the advance estimate of 3Q20 GDP. Growth is expected to have been very strong (30-35% at an annual rate, following -5.0% in 1Q20 and -31.4% in 2Q20), led by the rebound in consumer spending.

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