By Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Raymond James
The Economic Data Round-Up – Recent economic data reports added to the picture of a sharp rebound in May and June, followed by more moderate growth in July, August, and September. Economic activity through the pandemic has been mixed, with strength in some areas and prolonged weakness in others. The rise in cases here and across the Atlantic raises concerns about the strength of the recovery into 2021.
This Week – A busy week in terms of economic reports, but financial market participants will focus on the election. Who will win the White House? Who will control the Senate? Will we even find out this week? In the meantime, the economic data are expected to remain consistent with a moderate pace of recovery. Nonfarm payrolls will be restrained by the exit of temporary census workers. Job gains should be relatively strong otherwise, but are still expected to be down 10 million or so from February. No change is expected from the Fed (no new dot plot or revised economic projections this time). In his press conference, Chair Powell should easily steer away from any political questions, although he is still in favor of further fiscal stimulus.