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Weekly Economic Monitor – The Expansion is Dead, Long Live the Recovery

By Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Raymond James

The Expansion is Dead, Long Live the Recovery – The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has formally declared that a recession began in February. The expansion lasted 128 months, the longest on record (at least back to 1854). Economic data reports should suggest that the downturn may have ended in April. That doesn’t mean everything is okay. Rather, the economy appears to have begun growing again (granted from a lower base). Following an initial sharp bounce off the bottom as state economies re-open, it will take many quarters to get back to where we were at the beginning of the year.

This Week – Two key data reports will be released on Tuesday. Retail sales and industrial production are expected to post strong gains in May, following sharp declines in March and April (still leaving activity far short of where we were in February). Chair Powell will present his monetary policy testimony to Congress (a month earlier than usual).

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