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Weekly Economic Monitor – The July Employment Report and the State of the Recovery

By Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Raymond James

The July Employment Report and the State of the Recovery – Nonfarm payrolls rose about as expected in the initial estimate for July, even as economists’ forecasts were widespread and risks to their job outlooks were generally seen to the downside. The unemployment rate fell a bit more than anticipated, but labor force participation stalled. While the report was essentially a snapshot of the first half of July, as COVID-19 cases were rising, details were consistent with the view that the pace of the economic recovery has moderated. Fiscal support played a key role in the initial rebound in May and June. More will be needed to prevent the economy from relapsing in the near term.

This Week – The important data arrive on Friday, but Thursday’s jobless claims figure will remain the key near-term indicator.

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